Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 80143.823450 84610.333347 89074.481416 93867.828268 98865.695129 103919.886079 109414.064101
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 72262.277017 79062.385193 86049.144251 93754.047609 102002.203724 110556.810980 120089.587889
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 67582.881465 76043.101729 84924.638300 94922.568144 105842.357747 117385.440286 130488.205815
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 62961.312963 72560.525285 82823.971270 94579.469553 107635.791398 121656.397782 137814.513412
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 60377.967837 71026.727526 82591.592959 96033.419067 111174.190982 127648.005232 146873.057735
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 57856.839303 69346.649264 82003.134788 96909.549916 113912.867613 132630.504399 154717.875871
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 55167.292419 67296.616506 80836.198942 96980.130412 115610.838420 136341.330840 161053.495913
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 52644.466319 65294.634910 79593.166244 96839.328359 116958.791213 139569.203059 166775.289032
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 51490.469922 64813.225596 80039.627505 98592.095577 120441.974240 145210.639924 175256.415219
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 50428.096465 64369.753435 80470.929674 100277.035954 123811.384745 150705.529772 183575.992075
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 48957.469147 63361.833782 80169.593125 101038.869806 126052.319432 154861.625212 190330.267925
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 47096.121884 61801.489998 79137.748665 100863.855859 127128.372182 157612.988481 195413.441014
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 45590.687709 60649.711838 78583.755013 101264.601019 128913.842236 161247.674373 201620.052029
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 43966.718401 59294.901649 77734.982386 101267.589393 130193.619608 164271.724237 207112.470651
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 43076.850956 58822.746614 77940.007092 102536.974344 132997.418950 169122.099015 214812.671006
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 41456.637958 57364.522148 76867.278582 102177.576586 133767.861508 171493.726472 219513.419936
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 40833.493392 57156.676033 77338.256303 103725.453249 136882.672556 176716.598539 227695.705741
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 39966.516540 56598.398042 77337.536188 104657.587485 139219.589734 180989.024990 234734.998145
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 38762.224605 55557.719043 76685.614697 104732.708762 140460.522336 183901.833895 240107.375406
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 37521.754370 54428.956857 75883.906414 104582.966847 141391.433824 186414.784089 244982.359108
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 37209.662752 54522.820486 76654.221658 106446.979320 144875.578258 192114.078088 253838.129624
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 36885.779851 54584.839373 77372.054026 108238.479840 148272.201330 197720.818339 262612.455259
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 36174.133271 54096.591940 77347.196842 109048.374254 150404.426945 201744.901527 269425.086596